Who's watching the nickel price?

The current nickel price appears to be falling fast. From a recent high of $29,400 per tonne in February 2011, the LME nickel price has tumbled to just $21,650 / tonne today, with some analysts worried that nickel may soon breach the $20,000/t level. Expanding supply of the metal seems to be the cause of these price movements – especially from China where production of 'nickel pigs' [iron units made from low grade pig iron produced from laterite ore] is reportedly growing fast.

 

One wonders of course whether stainless steel prices will be following suit. Meanwhile for further comment, see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8ee7776-9846-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PSHz1uyD.

 

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2010 iron ore price

Well, it looks like the benchmark 2010 iron ore price settlement will be somewhere near 30% above year 2009 price levels. That at least is the comment of http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/6636140/soaring-spot-price-bring-cheers-for-iron-ore-miners/ according to the latest views from those in the know in China.

More news on this pricing topic as we hear …

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Steel prices at bottom of cycle ?

Flat product prices appear to be at or close to the bottom of the cycle. This is the latest view from Sheffield-based steel consultants MEPS. Recent price forecasts appear to have changed very little since April 2009. Whilst there is still some negative pressure on transaction values due to subdued demand and bloated inventories - and transaction values may slip a little further in June 2009 - steel prices should stabilise during the third quarter of 2009. Steel product prices are then forecast to start rising in the final quarter of this year, with further advances predicted early in 2010 as the world economic climate improves.

To read the full MEPS price report, visit http://www.worldsteelprices.com/news4.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2009 iron ore price settlement

What a difference a few weeks make!

Two reports published by the Financial Times last week suggest that 2009 world iron ore prices will fall - or at best see a minimal rise in 2009.

Thus on Thursday, the FT discussed the high probability that iron ore miners would see the first price cut in seven years [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88fc2368-a6af-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 ].

On Friday, the paper discussed how a fall in Chinese steel demand would cause iron ore prices to buckle [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca829344-a6eb-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html ].

The general indication seems presently to be that iron ore prices will settle in 2009 somewhere between a 10 per cent cut, and a 10 per cent rise (at most). Watch this space!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2008 iron ore price rise

Reports are coming in that Nippon Steel has just agreed an iron ore price increase, effective 1st April 2008. The price rise is 65%.

Steel mills typically accept whatever price is first settled with one of the big three miners, so it seems probable that the 65% iron ore price increase will be the benchmark settlement for other deals in the coming weeks.

For original report, see http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL176439220080217

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Iron ore prices to soar

The latest view on the 2008 iron ore price is that it will increase by 30-50% over 2007 price level. Interestingly, this perspective is not driven by the BHP-Billiton - Rio bid. Rather, this view emerges for a different reason - which is urbanisation in China and India. According to the report, demand for steel will increase as people move from rural agriculture-based activities to manufacturing or service-based activities located in cities.

For original report, see http://www.stuff.co.nz/4282964a6026.html

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Steel price forecast - European long products

Falling international scrap prices are expected to lead to a decline in transaction prices for EU long products in the coming months according to an assessment just published by MEPS.

Coupled with a slowdown in construction over the winter months, this trend is likely to lead to a sharp decline in rebar prices in Europe as the end of the year arrives. A price correction can then be expected in the beginning of 2008.

For original MEPS report, see http://www.meps.co.uk/medium-carbon-steel-price-forecast-eu6-07.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Analyst - steel prices to fall in coming months

According to a report published in New Kerala earlier this week, steel industry analyst Peter Marcus considers that the world steel price will fall in coming months. For full report, see http://www.newkerala.com/news5.php?action=fullnews&id=28254.

This perspective adds to the debate concerning the medium term future of international steel prices, about which - as reported in our steel blog - there seems to be much divergence of opinion of late ...

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