World stainless steel production 2009 - 2010

MEPS today report that global crude stainless steel production for 2009 turned out at 24.6 million tonnes, a fall of 5 percent compared with 2008.

MEPS also observe that total stainless steel output for the first quarter of 2010 will be around 7.5 million tonnes . This figure is a remarkable 54.6 percent higher than the outturn for the first three months 2009, which marked the low point of the recent downturn.

With corrections for stock levels, MEPS forecast for global stainless steel output in calendar year 2010 is ~28.5 million tonnes, which would exceed the previous record outturn, in 2006, by 0.3 million tonnes.

For further info, see MEPS' stainless report.

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Polish steel industry - supply and demand review

Steel industry consultants MCI have just published a review of the steel sector in Poland.

In an October 2009 report of ~45 pages, the authors discuss the supply of demand for steel, including recent history and current industry structure and ownership. The report looks at current steel capacities in flat, long and tube products; at production, capacity utilisation, environmental issues, productivity, demand levels and demand segmentation. The authors also discuss future Polish steel consumption levels and market trends. Priced at Euro 395, the new report also outlines an industry SWOT analysis; and discusses some of the management challenges ahead.

For further information, visit Polish steel industry report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel production forecast for 2009

Steel industry consultants MEPS have just published their forecast for 2009 world steel production. The output forecast for crude steel is 1165 million metric tonnes. This is a 12% drop on global 2008 steelmaking production volumes. For full article, see http://www.meps.co.uk/article-key-out-q2-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices at bottom of cycle ?

Flat product prices appear to be at or close to the bottom of the cycle. This is the latest view from Sheffield-based steel consultants MEPS. Recent price forecasts appear to have changed very little since April 2009. Whilst there is still some negative pressure on transaction values due to subdued demand and bloated inventories - and transaction values may slip a little further in June 2009 - steel prices should stabilise during the third quarter of 2009. Steel product prices are then forecast to start rising in the final quarter of this year, with further advances predicted early in 2010 as the world economic climate improves.

To read the full MEPS price report, visit http://www.worldsteelprices.com/news4.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World stainless steel output to fall

MEPS are reporting that world stainless steel output is to fall in 2009. According to the consultancy, global stainless steel production will come to ~20.8 million tonnes in 2009, which represents a production fall of around 20 per cent from 2008 levels. The Western world figure (excluding China and Russia at 13.5 million tonnes will be the lowest production figure since 1994 - and indicate the third consecutive annual decline in Western stainless steel output.

You can read more at http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial04-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World iron ore price - 2009 reduction

Well, it looks like the Chinese will be pushing for a 2009 iron ore price settlement near to a 40% price reduction. That is a little more of a price fall than we discussed in a previous blog, but arguably the recession has set in harder and longer now.

For the latest discussions about China's stance on iron ore prices, see http://en.ce.cn/Industries/Basic-industries/200903/09/t20090309_18436351.shtml.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices back on the rise?

A MEPS report http://www.meps.co.uk/keynote01-09.htm today suggests that EU steel prices will be back on the rise soon. Steel prices - according to MEPS – have now bottomed. Visit MEPS to see the their latest report…

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2009 iron ore price settlement

What a difference a few weeks make!

Two reports published by the Financial Times last week suggest that 2009 world iron ore prices will fall - or at best see a minimal rise in 2009.

Thus on Thursday, the FT discussed the high probability that iron ore miners would see the first price cut in seven years [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88fc2368-a6af-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 ].

On Friday, the paper discussed how a fall in Chinese steel demand would cause iron ore prices to buckle [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca829344-a6eb-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html ].

The general indication seems presently to be that iron ore prices will settle in 2009 somewhere between a 10 per cent cut, and a 10 per cent rise (at most). Watch this space!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Iron ore prices 2009

As we enter the last quarter of 2008, so discussions commence on the 2009 iron ore price level. Following on from the mid-contract 20% price rise sought for Chinese consumers by Vale just weeks ago [September 2008], industry talk at present is of a 30% iron ore price increase in 2009. This would of course follow the massive price rises of between 65% to 95% seen during 2008.

For further reports on the expected price increase, see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e5152dc-7b3d-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com