Saturday, January 12, 2019

Year 2030 Steel Price Forecasts

Working  with a group of mathematicians from ExMetrix, we have combined efforts to produce long-term steel price and raw material cost forecasts through to the year 2030. The projections are prepared using advanced machine learning techniques using data mining. Moreover, the fit of predicted prices to actual prices for the last 50 years from this model is very good indeed.

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Saturday, August 11, 2018

Steel expert witness service

Check out our new steel industry expert witness service for professional steel sector litigation support.

Andrzej M Kotas
Managing Director

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Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Steel industry news and information

Have you visited our website recently? Why not check out our steel industry news and information portal at for steel news, steel prices, steel cost models, free industry reports and more?

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Monday, May 28, 2018

Leading equipment suppliers

Our analysts have put together a steel industry suppliers page. This identifies steel associations, consultants, distributors, electrode suppliers, equipment supply firms etc.
Under equipment suppliers, we identify

For full list of several hundred firms, visit or to see a world map of their locations see

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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Time for another D'Avignon steel plan for Europe?

Do site visitors consider that now may be the time to impose another D'Avignon steel plan in Europe? Closure of a significant proportion of EU steel capacity with better capacity utilisation in existing European mills would surely be a benefit to the sector, would it not?

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Monday, January 22, 2018

Steel expert witness service

The team have just launched a sister website, called

The new service (operated by Metals Consulting International Limited) offers clients technical analysis and opinion that can assist courts in reaching their decisions concerning iron and steel industry disputes. For examples of recent cases, see the case studies page.

For further information, visit the new steel expert witness service.

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Friday, December 29, 2017

Steel ChatBot - SteelBot

Have you tried out our new ChatBot? Our ChatBot [called SteelBot] is a new automated service that can answer a lot of questions about the products and services that we offer.

Why not give SteelBot a try? Just look out for the ‘Can I help you’ graphic at the foot of any page of our website.


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Saturday, December 23, 2017

The Rise and Rise of India's Steel Industry

Ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, the three largest steel producers have been China, Japan and the US. Before China secured the top slot in 1996, the largest producer had been Japan. Since then, Japan has remained the second largest steel maker with output in 2016 totalling 105 million tonnes. This status quo is being threatened by India where, over the same time frame, production has increased four-fold to nearly 97 million tonnes. In addition, India overtook the US to become the third largest global producer in 2015.

So far this year, Indian crude steel production has increased by a further 6% whereas Japan has seen production remain broadly flat. If this rate of growth continues into December, Japanese production would be 104 million tonnes and Indian production would have hit 101.5 million tonnes for the year. Whilst it is unlikely that India will displace Japan this year it should overtake Japan next year to become the second largest steel producer.

In recent years, India has been exporting and importing similar quantities of steel but this has diverged considerably in the year to date 2017. Imports have declined by 13% whereas exports have increased by 67%. The huge jump this year represents a record total but globally India is still a relatively modest exporter, shipping less than half the tonnage of Japan. Despite this, given the huge quantities of steel being produced in the country, the big jump in exports should act as a warning sign to other global producers.

Most of India’s exports are concentrated on flat products and India is a net exporter of HRC, CR and HDG products. Exports of hot rolled coil have more than trebled so far this year and in the year to September they have hit nearly hit 4 million tonnes. The main destination for this HRC is Vietnam, which has increased more than five-fold to 1.2 million tonnes, replacing some of the tonnage that China had been supplying There has also been growth in shipments to Europe with a four-fold increase in exports to Italy and a doubling of shipments to Belgium at 593 thousand tonnes and 215 thousand tonnes respectively.

Going forward, India is almost certain to overtake Japan as the second largest producer of steel next year. Historically much of India’s production has been consumed internally, and this remains the case, but the massive growth in exports this year suggests that this scenario has the potential to change. India is already making an impact on the global steel market and should projected domestic demand growth not materialise, Indian exports have the potential to become very significant.

This post was prepared by the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau. You can visit ISSB at


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Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Falling Chinese steel exports

So far this year, Chinese crude steel production has been racing upwards and if the 6% growth seen so far continues to the end of the year, the country will have produced more than 851 million tonnes of steel which would be a new record level. Unlike in past years, this growth in output is being channelled into internal infrastructure demand. ISSB have reported earlier in the year that Chinese exports have been falling but this decline has actually been accelerating as the year progressed. The year started with monthly year on year falls of around 25% but September saw a 42% decrease and the October decrease of 36% to 4.9 million tonnes represented the lowest monthly total since February 2014.

The decline has been most evident in long products with exports in the year to date down 59% when compared to last year. The decrease in flat product exports has been much more modest in the same time period, at just under 8%. There was a 41% decrease in shipments to the Middle East, exports to other Asian countries were down 33% and shipments to the EU fell by 35%. Despite this, China still managed to grow exports to some regions. Shipments to South America were up 2%, exports to Russia increased by 27% and interestingly shipments to the three NAFTA countries increased by 10%, mainly due to elevated levels of steel exported to Canada. Exports to the US remained broadly flat but there was a large fall in 2016 following implementation of anti-dumping legislation.

The hike in Chinese steel demand took most of the steel community by surprise this year and although there are currently no signs that the government is reducing its spend on infrastructure, it seems logical to assume that this rate of growth cannot continue indefinitely. Indeed, the World Steel Association is currently forecasting no growth at all next year, with demand predicted to be flat. It could well be that as with this year, this growth figure is on the conservative side but if not, given the sheer volumes involved, it only takes a small percentage decline in demand levels for global markets to be flooded with Chinese steel once again.

You can download a file showing monthly Chinese exports here or alternatively visit ISSB for more information on steel.


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Monday, November 20, 2017

Steel industry message board

The web team at have launched a steel industry message board at Site visitors may post news, event information, recruitment info, classified ads and other messages on the forum.
There is also a technical section for metal sector questions and answers.

Feel free to visit us at


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