Steel company 'diagnostics' service

Are you interested in an independent view of what ArcelorMittal might be doing in the next 5 years? Or in the probable future evolution path for Nippon Steel in Japan? Or in possible medium-term steel sector disposals by BlueScope Steel?

Steel experts MCI have put together a list of scenarios [which we think, are quite possible corporate trajectories] for more than 40 of the world's largest steel companies. This list is available for free, for all our site visitors to see, as part of a new 'Steel diagnostics' service. To see the full list and for further info about MCI's new service, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/swot.html.

Dr Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
www.steelonthenet.com

Polish steel industry - supply and demand review

Steel industry consultants MCI have just published a review of the steel sector in Poland.

In an October 2009 report of ~45 pages, the authors discuss the supply of demand for steel, including recent history and current industry structure and ownership. The report looks at current steel capacities in flat, long and tube products; at production, capacity utilisation, environmental issues, productivity, demand levels and demand segmentation. The authors also discuss future Polish steel consumption levels and market trends. Priced at Euro 395, the new report also outlines an industry SWOT analysis; and discusses some of the management challenges ahead.

For further information, visit Polish steel industry report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Zinc ingot prices

Zinc seems to be hovering at a twelve month high. Prices in recent days have hit $1900 to $2000 per tonne for LME high grade ingot of 99.995% purity [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/charts.html for price chart]. This must feed into hot dip galvanised / electro galvanised coil and sheet prices some time soon.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel scrap prices

Is anyone watching the price of steel scrap? The Rotterdam f.o.b. export price of HMS1 heavy steel scrap was under US $200 / metric tonne in March 2009. Today, barely six months later, the price is around US $325 per tonne. You can track the latest scrap prices at http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel prices: price recovery in the medium term

A few steel industry colleagues have been asking the www.steelonthenet.com team how we see world steel prices evolving in the medium term. In reply, looking the world economic picture as well as at probable raw material price developments, our assessment is that:

- steel prices will remain at H1 2009 levels for the next 6-9 months … meaning we see steel prices as essentially stable to Q2 2010;

- we then see prices recovering slowly. We predict a price recovery from Q2 2010 of perhaps 40% across the following two years [to mid-2012];

- we see further recovery of world steel prices to around 50-60% above Q2 2010 levels in 2013-2014.

This means therefore that (in our view) steel prices will take a little while [maybe 3 years or so] to recover to their end-2007 / early 2008 level, but that we do not foresee a return to the extraordinary prices levels of mid-2008 for some time.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel production forecast for 2009

Steel industry consultants MEPS have just published their forecast for 2009 world steel production. The output forecast for crude steel is 1165 million metric tonnes. This is a 12% drop on global 2008 steelmaking production volumes. For full article, see http://www.meps.co.uk/article-key-out-q2-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel industry quiz

The www.steelonthenet.com team have put together a steel industry quiz. Sponsored by steel industry consultants MCI [Metals Consulting International] the steel quiz is a 5 minute test involving 20 questions on world supply, demand and related steel industry issues.

Why not test your knowledge for free? Visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/tests/questions.php

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices at bottom of cycle ?

Flat product prices appear to be at or close to the bottom of the cycle. This is the latest view from Sheffield-based steel consultants MEPS. Recent price forecasts appear to have changed very little since April 2009. Whilst there is still some negative pressure on transaction values due to subdued demand and bloated inventories - and transaction values may slip a little further in June 2009 - steel prices should stabilise during the third quarter of 2009. Steel product prices are then forecast to start rising in the final quarter of this year, with further advances predicted early in 2010 as the world economic climate improves.

To read the full MEPS price report, visit http://www.worldsteelprices.com/news4.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Balance of the sexes ... iron and steel, mining and metals

We have just done a count of the male : female ratio amongst senior executives in the industry worldwide. Our full list of international iron and steel / mining and metals-related executives (including Chairpersons, Presidents, CEOs, MDs, FDs, other Board members, Partners etc) comes to a total of ~350 people. For full list [which we do not pretend is exhaustive] please see www.steelonthenet.com/whoswho.html. From this list, the female total comes to just eight. That is ~2.3% of the total.

In alphabetical order the women on this list include Galina Aglyamova (CFO of NLMK, Russia), Vicki Avril (President of IPSCOs operations in Canada), Cynthia Carroll (CEO of Anglo American), Becky Hites (Managing Partner at World Steel Dynamics), Ms Elisabeth Nilsson (MD at Jernkontoret, Sweden), Xie Qihua (Chairwoman of Baosteel Group, China), Ms Barbara R Smith (CFO at Gerdau Ameristeel) and Anne Tremblay (Secretary General, International Manganese Institute).

Not much balance of the sexes in iron and steel / mining and metals then. Rather, a very male dominated industry still - in case there was any doubt.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World stainless steel output to fall

MEPS are reporting that world stainless steel output is to fall in 2009. According to the consultancy, global stainless steel production will come to ~20.8 million tonnes in 2009, which represents a production fall of around 20 per cent from 2008 levels. The Western world figure (excluding China and Russia at 13.5 million tonnes will be the lowest production figure since 1994 - and indicate the third consecutive annual decline in Western stainless steel output.

You can read more at http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial04-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com