Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Iron ore price forecast

The international iron ore price is set to collapse later this year. According to a new analysts’ report, the price of the raw material will drop to a year-end low of $US37 a tonne, averaging $US47 in the fourth quarter and $US38 in the first three months of 2017.



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Friday, February 13, 2015

ArcelorMittal surprises on debt despite bearish outlook

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest producer of steel, warned on Friday of lower profits this year but surprised the market by managing to cut its debt to the lowest level since the company was created in 2006.
The company, which produces about 6 percent of the world's steel, said it expected core profits to drop to between $6.5 and $7 billion in 2015, from $7.2 billion in 2014, as iron ore prices sapped earnings in its mining business and steel market growth cooled from last year. To read more, visit https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/arcelormittal-sees-iron-ore-hit-065351709.html

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Thursday, January 20, 2011

Transport cost estimation service - coal, iron ore, steel

We have just launched a new service for estimating commodity transport costs around the world [for scrap cargo, iron ore, coal, steel etc]. For further info, visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/freight.html

 

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Monday, January 17, 2011

Steel prices to reach $1000 per tonne

According to a MEPS report published today, steel prices are headed toward $1000 per tonne. This would bring steel prices back to their levels of July 2008, which was the last steel pricing peak before the crash.

Driven by higher steelmaking input costs [including coking coal, iron ore as well as steel scrap], the current expectation is for world steel prices to reach $1000 per metric tonne by Q3 2011.

 

To read the MEPS report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/MepsNewsSteelPrices2011.htm

 

blogger@steelonthenet.com

 

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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Steel prices set to soar

Steel prices are set to soar by up to 33% according to a report in the Financial Times. This is the view expressed today after miners and steelmakers agreed a ground-breaking change in the iron ore price system, based on abandonment of the old annual 'benchmark' iron ore pricing mechanism and adoption of a quarterly spot market price related pricing scheme.

For further news on this, see original FT report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Thursday, March 11, 2010

2010 iron ore prices increase

It would seem that the iron ore price settlement this year will see a price increase of ~80-90% over 2009 price levels.

In a vociferous response, EUROFER today launched a bitter attack on the iron ore supply sector. A press release issued this morning [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/pdf/Eurofer_11-Mar-10.pdf ], stressed the outrage felt by the European steel industry at the proposed extent of the price increases.

'These increases come whilst the industry is still reeling from the effects of the most serious financial and economic crisis since the 1930s' said EUROFER. 'European Governments should be aware of the implications for the wider economy if these price increases become reality' it added.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Friday, January 01, 2010

2010 iron ore price

Well, it looks like the benchmark 2010 iron ore price settlement will be somewhere near 30% above year 2009 price levels. That at least is the comment of http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/6636140/soaring-spot-price-bring-cheers-for-iron-ore-miners/ according to the latest views from those in the know in China.

More news on this pricing topic as we hear …

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Monday, March 09, 2009

World iron ore price - 2009 reduction

Well, it looks like the Chinese will be pushing for a 2009 iron ore price settlement near to a 40% price reduction. That is a little more of a price fall than we discussed in a previous blog, but arguably the recession has set in harder and longer now.

For the latest discussions about China's stance on iron ore prices, see http://en.ce.cn/Industries/Basic-industries/200903/09/t20090309_18436351.shtml.

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Sunday, November 02, 2008

2009 iron ore price settlement

What a difference a few weeks make!

Two reports published by the Financial Times last week suggest that 2009 world iron ore prices will fall - or at best see a minimal rise in 2009.

Thus on Thursday, the FT discussed the high probability that iron ore miners would see the first price cut in seven years [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88fc2368-a6af-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 ].

On Friday, the paper discussed how a fall in Chinese steel demand would cause iron ore prices to buckle [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca829344-a6eb-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html ].

The general indication seems presently to be that iron ore prices will settle in 2009 somewhere between a 10 per cent cut, and a 10 per cent rise (at most). Watch this space!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Iron ore prices 2009

As we enter the last quarter of 2008, so discussions commence on the 2009 iron ore price level. Following on from the mid-contract 20% price rise sought for Chinese consumers by Vale just weeks ago [September 2008], industry talk at present is of a 30% iron ore price increase in 2009. This would of course follow the massive price rises of between 65% to 95% seen during 2008.

For further reports on the expected price increase, see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e5152dc-7b3d-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Monday, February 18, 2008

Steelmaking costs 2008

With all the talk of the impending 2008 iron ore price increase, industry observers might be forgiven for taking their eye off other steelmaking costs. But ferrous scrap prices also rocketed in January [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html], rising a massive $90/tonne to ~$385-$400 fob Rotterdam for HMS1. Just to add to the misery, natural gas prices also jumped 20% in January [http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html], to reach record levels ...

Anyone betting on a 2008 steel price fall ?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Sunday, February 17, 2008

2008 iron ore price rise

Reports are coming in that Nippon Steel has just agreed an iron ore price increase, effective 1st April 2008. The price rise is 65%.

Steel mills typically accept whatever price is first settled with one of the big three miners, so it seems probable that the 65% iron ore price increase will be the benchmark settlement for other deals in the coming weeks.

For original report, see http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL176439220080217

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Sunday, November 25, 2007

Top producer rankings in iron ore and steel

We have just published the top producer rankings in the steel sector, based on capacity as at the end of 2007.

In iron ore, CVRD leads the field with 324 mt of iron ore capacity (20% of the world total), and Rio Tinto second (209 mt) and BHP Billiton third (152 mt). BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto combined would therefore take the number one slot with ~360 mt, or approximately 22% of world supply. Currently, the top three have a worldwide supply share of 42%.

In steel flat products, Mittal Arcelor is in number one position with ~103 mt of flat roll capacity, US Steel is a fairly distant number two with ~32 mt flat product capacity and Nippon Steel is in number three slot with ~30 mt/year of capacity. The top three flat product producers currently have a world supply share of 26.5%.

In steel long products, Mittal Arcelor is again number one, but with just 8% or so of world supply (~ 47 mt capacity / year from a world total of about 596 mt). Gerdau of Brazil is number two (with approx 20 mt capacity) and Evrazholding of Russia is number three with ~15 mt/year of long product capacity. The top three long product producers together control just 14% or so of world supply.

Compared to iron ore production or flat steel product supply, the industry structure in steel long products therefore remains very fragmented. Perhaps long products is the next area where significant industry consolidation might therefore be expected in 2008 ?

For full top 20 capacity rankings in iron ore, flat and long products, visit us at http://www.steelonthenet.com/plant.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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Friday, September 14, 2007

Iron ore prices 2008

Reports are coming in that the forthcoming round of iron ore price negotiations could result in some quite large price increases once again.

The main issue seems to be the very tight iron ore market today. Price negotiations are therefore expected to move one way only - and this is upwards.

Some analysts even consider that the 2007 / 2008 iron ore price rise - in percentage terms - could even be as high the 71% rise seen around March 2005.

To read more on this topic, visit http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=4033500&fSectionId=552&fSetId=662

blogger@steelonthenet.com

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