Stainless steel in danger from China [MEPS]
Remarkable growth forecasts for China’s stainless steel sector were made at a recent industry meeting in Shanghai. Chinese production capacity in 2006 will be double the figure in 2004. Moreover, if current expansion plans are fully realised, China could be melting more than 16 million tonnes per year in 2010 – equivalent to more than 60 percent of current world output.
China is already having a determining influence on global stainless markets. In the first half of this year, its stainless crude steel production jumped by 54 percent year-on-year, while output in almost every other country was falling, according to figures from International Stainless Steel Forum.
The surging expansion of domestic production is making China less of an import market, and more of an exporter in its own right. The oversupply that has characterised the global stainless steel sector this year may become persistent.
Mills supplying the Asian market are already suffering. Leading producers – including Posco, Nisshin Steel and NSSC – have cut back their operating rates in order to reduce the oversupply that has undermined prices. European mills have switched more of their exports to Russia, whose own stainless production has suffered as a consequence – falling 40 percent in January-August 2005.
One large nickel supplier expects Chinese stainless consumption to grow by 9 percent per year for the next decade. Even if this rapid growth rate is realised, it will still leave China with an exportable surplus of stainless steel from its newly expanded plants.
Few people believed China would install so many new stainless production units. Indeed, even some in the Chinese industry accept that the country is building up excess capacity that could overhang the market for years to come. Several other producers are already too advanced in construction work to cancel their expansions; but they may have to delay start-up or mothball some installations if they are to protect their profitability.
Source: Stainless Steel Review
China is already having a determining influence on global stainless markets. In the first half of this year, its stainless crude steel production jumped by 54 percent year-on-year, while output in almost every other country was falling, according to figures from International Stainless Steel Forum.
The surging expansion of domestic production is making China less of an import market, and more of an exporter in its own right. The oversupply that has characterised the global stainless steel sector this year may become persistent.
Mills supplying the Asian market are already suffering. Leading producers – including Posco, Nisshin Steel and NSSC – have cut back their operating rates in order to reduce the oversupply that has undermined prices. European mills have switched more of their exports to Russia, whose own stainless production has suffered as a consequence – falling 40 percent in January-August 2005.
One large nickel supplier expects Chinese stainless consumption to grow by 9 percent per year for the next decade. Even if this rapid growth rate is realised, it will still leave China with an exportable surplus of stainless steel from its newly expanded plants.
Few people believed China would install so many new stainless production units. Indeed, even some in the Chinese industry accept that the country is building up excess capacity that could overhang the market for years to come. Several other producers are already too advanced in construction work to cancel their expansions; but they may have to delay start-up or mothball some installations if they are to protect their profitability.
Source: Stainless Steel Review
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