steelonthenet blog

Iron ore prices on the rise

2012-01-15T13:32:00.002Z

Iron ore prices have risen approx. 22.5% in the last seven weeks from $117 to $143.50 per ton, due to severe weather in the two countries responsible for 70% of ore production – that is Australia and Brazil. For report, see http://www.topix.com/business/steel/2012/01/as-iron-ore-hits-a-7-week-high-a-look-at-hedging-steel-makers

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Stainless steel market on the rise in early 2012 ?

2011-11-29T12:48:00.001Z

According to MEPS, all the leading stainless steel producers in the United States have announced increases to basis values - or reduced discounts - for flat products, effective for January deliveries. MEPS latest report also states that European mills are putting through price hikes in the New Year.

Interestingly, with demand volumes very poor and raw material costs falling, customers are expecting lower transaction values. Producers are, in many cases, still meeting these expectations. Note that the cost of nickel, most significantly, has fallen quite significantly in recent weeks.

So – a more profitable 2012 for the stainless steel sector?

For original MEPS report, see http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial1111.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

European flat product markets remain subdued

2011-10-25T19:57:00.002Z

MEPS just reported more gloomy news from the European flat rolled markets. According to a report published today:

- buyers feel that prices still have some way to go downwards, and are holding off placing new orders

- Service centres are keeping inventories low because they are unclear about the direction of steel prices

- The German strip market is described as difficult

- French buyers remain very cautious given the current economic and financial uncertainty in the EU

- Whilst the Italian economy remains weak so market sentiment remains dampened.

For original report, see http://www.meps.co.uk/Keynote10-11.htm. Let us hope for more positive news as the New Year approaches.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Stainless steel demand on the rise?

2011-09-06T11:05:00.002Z

According to a MEPS report stainless steel demand should be on the rise in the coming weeks. This is because of the expectation that stainless steel prices should fall, as nickel prices have been declining.

In fact, changes in the nickel price have been quite marked recently, with the nickel price falling to ~$25,000/tonne recently against earlier highs in 2011 of around $29,000 per tonne.

Visit our main website to track the nickel price and other non-ferrous prices.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel company history

2011-07-14T11:32:00.002Z

We have posted some pages with company history for selected steelmakers in the Knowledge Base section of our website. These pages cover historic developments [including mergers, acquisitions where relevant] at ArcelorMittal (incl Mittal Steel), Baosteel, British Steel (later Corus), Evraz Group, Nippon Steel, Nucor, POSCO and the Riva Group. Further historical profiles will follow in the coming weeks.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

European coke prices

2011-07-05T08:31:00.003Z

We now show European blast furnace coke prices on our website. The data indicate recent and historic metallurgical coke prices [f.o.b. export prices] in Euro per metric tonne. Visitors should go to http://www.steelonthenet.com/files/blast-furnace-coke.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Who's watching the nickel price?

2011-06-16T20:17:00.002Z

The current nickel price appears to be falling fast. From a recent high of $29,400 per tonne in February 2011, the LME nickel price has tumbled to just $21,650 / tonne today, with some analysts worried that nickel may soon breach the $20,000/t level. Expanding supply of the metal seems to be the cause of these price movements – especially from China where production of 'nickel pigs' [iron units made from low grade pig iron produced from laterite ore] is reportedly growing fast.

One wonders of course whether stainless steel prices will be following suit. Meanwhile for further comment, see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8ee7776-9846-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PSHz1uyD.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Production costs for seamless tube

2011-06-12T12:33:00.001Z

The Steelonthenet.com economics team has just published a new cost model. For per tonne conversion cost information from billet to seamless tube (‘green pipe’) for a ‘typical’ medium size pipe mill, see seamless tube cost model.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Metals and mining industry developments in China

2011-05-28T09:05:00.001Z

In a remarkable series of reports in recent weeks, it is emerging that top Chinese iron and steelmakers (e.g. WISCO or Wuhan Iron and Steel Company) are starting to diversify away from their core businesses of iron and steelmaking, into non-steel areas such as the production of wine and management of real estate. China’s steel sector is known to have significant overcapacity as well as a lot of highly cost-inefficient plant. Surely it would seem a bit more sensible for Chinese policymakers to concentrate on tackling some of the internal overcapacity and competitiveness issues, rather than trying to bolster steel sector profit margins by moving into completely new business areas such as wine making?

More information on this topic and related steel news on our website at Steelonthenet.com or for more on the WISCO story see http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90860/7370359.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel modernisation and investment in 2011

2011-04-28T14:07:00.002Z

We have just published a page listing many [perhaps most] major steel industry capital investments around the world in 2011. Please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/industry_investment.html to see the full list of facility modernisations.

Fee free to contact MCI@steelonthenet.com for similar data for 2012, 2013 or 2014.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Stainless steel industry news

2011-03-12T11:14:00.002Z

We have just launched a new stainless steel industry newsfeed. Visit stainless steel news or for a listing of all our steel industry feeds, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/feeds/all_feed_pages.php.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Transport cost estimation service - coal, iron ore, steel

2011-01-20T16:36:00.002Z

We have just launched a new service for estimating commodity transport costs around the world [for scrap cargo, iron ore, coal, steel etc]. For further info, visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/freight.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices to reach $1000 per tonne

2011-01-17T15:35:00.001Z

According to a MEPS report published today, steel prices are headed toward $1000 per tonne. This would bring steel prices back to their levels of July 2008, which was the last steel pricing peak before the crash.

Driven by higher steelmaking input costs [including coking coal, iron ore as well as steel scrap], the current expectation is for world steel prices to reach $1000 per metric tonne by Q3 2011.

To read the MEPS report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/MepsNewsSteelPrices2011.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Rebar cost model

2011-01-01T20:13:00.002Z

We have posted another cost model on the website. This is a January 2011 model of conversion costs from billet to rebar, based on scrap and billet costs today. To better understand cost structure for producing reinforcing bar, click steel rebar cost model.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel price forecast for 2011

2010-12-15T12:24:00.001Z

MEPS have just published their view of expected year 2011 steel price changes across Europe. After a 31% rise in the steel price index across 2010, the expectation is for a ‘double-digit’ percentage rise in EU steel prices in 2011.

For further information, see the MEPS report at http://www.meps.co.uk/keynote12-10.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Questions for steel industry planners

2010-11-03T15:29:00.002Z

Steel is generally thought of as a capital intensive industry. Here are some questions then for your strategic planning department … [which should be working hard to maximise return on capital employed].

- Which type of zinc galvanising line is preferred nowadays, and why?

- What the main technological alternative to tandem mill cold rolling?

- What causes per-tonne plate mill costs to vary up to 5-fold?

- Why do heavy section and rail rolling mills vary by up to 2½ -fold in capital cost per tonne terms?

- Is there a significant capital cost difference between coal-fired and natural gas based DRI plants?

- What is the main determinant of capex costs per tonne in a hot or cold rolling mill?

- How can I reduce my capital costs in electric steelmaking?

- What is the main driver of capex cost per tonne in a seamless tube mill?

- Are capital costs different for commodity and high performance steels – and why?

- Is it common to have partners involved in financing mill construction – do you have any examples?

- For which main elements of a steel plant do capital investment costs generally not vary with steel volume?

Full answers available in MCI’s steel industry capex report, published October / November 2010.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Capital investment costs of ironmaking equipment - sinter plant

2010-10-26T12:58:00.001Z

If you are interested in iron and steelmaking capital investment costs, the MCI steel capex report may be of interest.

For most key bits of iron and steelmaking plant [as well as for pellets, coal washing, waste water treatment, power generation etc] , the report describes recent investments around the globe - as well as typical capacities and current capital investment costs.

So if you are interested in the cost today of a new sinter plant for ironmaking [for example], the chart below will show you exactly how much you might pay ..

For more information about the report, including an executive summary, a contents list, and a list of exhibits, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/capex

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Iron and steel plant and equipment costs

2010-10-25T16:37:00.004Z

MCI have just published a new report on typical iron and steel industry plant and equipment costs. The report covers average sizes [in tonnes of annual capacity] and $ costs for a range of plant. This includes sinter, coke, DRI, blast furnaces, BOF plants, EAFs, induction furnaces, slab casting, billet and bloom casting, heavy plate, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, hot dip galvanised sheet, tin plate, organic coated sheet, heavy sections, steel bar, wire rod, drawn wire, welded tube, seamless tube, pellets, washed coal, lime, PCI, air separation, power plant etc.

Want to know the cost today of a DRI plant? The chart below will tell you.
The full report has another 30 charts like this ...

For further info, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/capex or call +44 775 149 0885.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Time for the strategy consultants?

2010-10-12T20:03:00.003Z

In a remarkably frank and open article, the FT today reports JSW [India’s third-biggest private sector steelmaker] as acknowledging that their acquisition of a Texas-based pipemaker in 2007 was a mistake.

According to the FT, Mr Sajjan Jindal (JSW’s Managing Director) now considers that JSW have a competitive advantage in India and a competitive disadvantage in the US.

It is not often that we see such honesty reported in the international steel press. Surely it is time however for JSW to now bring in the strategy consultants?

For original FT report, visit http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d588cd92-d553-11df-8e86-00144feabdc0.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Daily steel industry news by email - FREE

2010-08-30T18:43:00.008Z

Steelonthenet.com now offers FREE daily steel industry news by email. There is no cost, and no obligation to use this service; and you may unsubscribe at any time. For further information, see our free steel news page.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel production forecast to 2014

2010-08-20T11:13:00.002Z

Looking ahead to 2014, MEPS have just published a world steel production forecast.

Moving from world 2009 crude steel production of 1.23 billion metric tonnes, global crude steel output in 2010 is forecast at almost 1.4 billion tonnes. Worldwide crude steel output in 2014 is anticipated by MEPS to be over 1.6 billion tonnes.

For further information, visit MEPS at http://www.meps.co.uk/global-production2014.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel industry conference line-up

2010-08-12T07:41:00.004Z

As the holidays come to a close, so a new steel industry conference season line-up is beginning to emerge. Planned events in the coming months include:

9th International Stainless & Special Steel Summit
Tue 7 Sep 2010
Known as the world's leading gathering of high-level executives involved in stainless and special steels and their raw materials throughout the world, the annual conference

13th Central & Eastern European Steel Conference
Mon 13 Sep 2010
Now in its 13th year the Metal Bulletin Events' Central and Eastern European Steel Conference will once again promote dialogue between leading steel producers, purchasers and manufacturers. Meeting in the industry hub of Prague, this established event ...

McCloskey Steelmaking Raw Materials Conference 2010
Tue 28 Sep 2010
McCloskey look forward to seeing you at the Steel Making Raw Materials Conference 2010 in Hong Kong where we will debate the strategies required by producers ...

3rd South African Ferro-alloys Conference
Wed 29 Sep 2010
One of a kind, Metal Bulletin Events' South African Ferro Alloy Conference 2010 will for the 3rd time create the forum to discuss the future of one of the world's most important sources of alloying elements ...

SteelBB World Steel Raw Materials Conference 2010
Thu 30 Sep 2010
2010 is poised to be a landmark year for steel making raw materials - industry specialists from around the world will address SBB's inaugural Steel RMO conference, providing knowledge and insights into this radically changing landscape.

Powder Metallurgy 2010
Sun 10 Oct 2010
The World PM2010 Technical Programme will feature leading powder metallurgy presentations covering all aspects of the Powder Metallurgy Industry, including Metal Injection Moulding, Ferrous and Non-Ferrous components and materials. The parallel World PM2010 Exhibition will contain ...

CRU 4th North American Steel Conference
Mon 1 Nov 2010
The 4th North American Steel Conference will once again bring together consumers, steel mills, fabricators, service centers and financial analysts. The event presents a unique opportunity for delegates to meet and hear from senior-level representatives from companies involved in the North American steel market, both on the user and supplier-side. More than 250 high-level del...

14th Annual Met Coke World Summit
Mon 1 Nov 2010
The 14th annual Met Coke World Summit 2010 conference will feature an unparalleled line up of over 30 speakers to provide you with critical business intelligence needed to succeed in the dynamic coke, coal, and steel sectors. Taking place November 1-3, 2010 at the Omni William Penn Hotel in Pittsburgh ...

Fabtech 2010
Tue 2 Nov 2010
FABTECH is the largest event in North America dedicated to showcasing a full spectrum of metal forming, fabricating, tube & pipe, welding, and finishing equipment and technology. In 2010, the event returns for the first time in four years to the Southeast! More than 22,000 buyers and sellers from around the world will gather at Georgia's World Congress Center in Atlanta to...

ANKIROS 2010
Thu 11 Nov 2010
A four-day marathon of opportunity highlights the products and technologies associated with the whole supply chain of Eurasia's foundry and iron-steel production and processing industry at the 10th International Iron-Steel & Foundry Technology, Machinery and Products Trade Fair

26th International Ferro-alloys Conference
Sun 14 Nov 2010
Looking for new business in ferro-alloys? Metal Bulletin Events invite you to the 26th International Ferro-alloys Conference. The conference is the major fixture in the ferro-alloys calendar and represents a not-to-be-missed educational and networking opportunity

CRU 13th World Stainless Steel Conference
Tue 16 Nov 2010
What will you learn by attending the 13th World Stainless Steel conference in Paris? You will understand how the relationship between stocks and orders differs regionally; hear the latest trade data for stainless steel products; analyse the outlook in the seaborne stainless steel scrap market ...

Metalex 2010
Wed 24 Nov 2010
Located in the heart of ASEAN, the magnet of global foreign investment, METALEX sets future industrial trends in terms of policies, investment, and commercial developments; and has become the industrial icon that all industry professionals must participate in ....

8th Steel Success Strategies Conference
Mon 29 Nov 2010
It's been a turbulent time in world steel markets and the downturn has resulted in a number of new paradigms in global steel. Steel mills and producers, suppliers of raw materials, semi-finished products, end products, technology manufacturers, financiers, investors and service suppliers from Latin America, Canada, USA, Europe, Africa, India, China and Japan: The A-Z of the ...

14th Middle East Iron and Steel Conference
Mon 13 Dec 2010
Acknowledged as the largest and most important event on the regions calendar, Metal Bulletin Events' 14th Middle East Iron and Steel Conference will bring together leading steel producers, government officials, miners, traders and end-users ...

Full details of all leading steel sector conferences may always be found on our steel industry conferences page and on the Steelonthenet.com event list page.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel industry news headlines [free]

2010-08-08T11:02:00.003Z

Steel portal http://www.steelonthenet.com
has launched a new steel industry news headlines service.

Free to all site visitors, this news service may be accessed 24/7 at http://www.steelonthenet.com/news_headlines.php

With our compliments ...

Dr Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
www.steelonthenet.com

Steel price history - free graphs

2010-08-06T18:57:00.002Z

Our website http://www.steelonthenet.com now shows several steel price charts online. To see the recent prices for ferrous scrap, pig iron, billet, slab, hot rolled coil or rebar, just visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/pricing_history.php.

All charts are shown with the compliments of international steel industry consultants MCI.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Correction - steel prices to stay flat ...

2010-08-01T20:06:00.003Z

We quoted an FT report on 31st March suggesting 'Steel prices set to soar...'

Four months on, we wish to correct this perspective. Our current best estimate is that steel prices will stay more or less flat for the next 12 months. This is because of slower-than-expected world economic growth, and relatively low steelmaking capacity utilisation rates in the coming months ...

For the latest [free] steel price forecasts 12 months out, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/price_forecasts.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World stainless steel production 2009 - 2010

2010-06-02T09:22:00.003Z

MEPS today report that global crude stainless steel production for 2009 turned out at 24.6 million tonnes, a fall of 5 percent compared with 2008.

MEPS also observe that total stainless steel output for the first quarter of 2010 will be around 7.5 million tonnes . This figure is a remarkable 54.6 percent higher than the outturn for the first three months 2009, which marked the low point of the recent downturn.

With corrections for stock levels, MEPS forecast for global stainless steel output in calendar year 2010 is ~28.5 million tonnes, which would exceed the previous record outturn, in 2006, by 0.3 million tonnes.

For further info, see MEPS' stainless report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Top steel industry news sites ...

2010-05-28T17:03:00.003Z

Capital Steel have just published their own independent rankings of the leading international steel industry news sites. See their top steel news resources web page at http://www.capitalsteel.net/blog/top-steel-news-sites.

And yes - we made it!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Nickel through the $25,000 barrier

2010-04-12T16:11:00.003Z

Whilst there was much comment in mid-2008 when nickel prices peaked at $20,000 per metric tonne, the metal price rose above $25,000 just recently. With suspension of BHP's mining operations in Western Australia after a recent fatality, the supply demand balance for nickel is starting to look as if further price rises might be expected.

Steel prices set to soar

2010-03-31T11:06:00.003Z

Steel prices are set to soar by up to 33% according to a report in the Financial Times. This is the view expressed today after miners and steelmakers agreed a ground-breaking change in the iron ore price system, based on abandonment of the old annual 'benchmark' iron ore pricing mechanism and adoption of a quarterly spot market price related pricing scheme.

For further news on this, see original FT report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2010 iron ore prices increase

2010-03-11T12:48:00.004Z

It would seem that the iron ore price settlement this year will see a price increase of ~80-90% over 2009 price levels.

In a vociferous response, EUROFER today launched a bitter attack on the iron ore supply sector. A press release issued this morning [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/pdf/Eurofer_11-Mar-10.pdf ], stressed the outrage felt by the European steel industry at the proposed extent of the price increases.

'These increases come whilst the industry is still reeling from the effects of the most serious financial and economic crisis since the 1930s' said EUROFER. 'European Governments should be aware of the implications for the wider economy if these price increases become reality' it added.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Engineering steel in Europe

2010-02-04T22:16:00.003Z

Steel industry advisers Metals Consulting International have just published an in-depth review of the European engineering steel sector.

In a February 2010 report of ~50 pages, the authors discuss the supply and demand for engineering steel.

Across Europe, 53 producers of engineering steel bar [also known as special bar quality steel, or SBQ] are identified. With a handful of these plants having engineering steel bar capacity at or over 500kt/year (facilities that are located in Germany and in Eastern Europe), average European plant scale is close to ~240kt with the smallest average size being found in Central Europe. Total European output of all 53 facilities is assessed at ~8.4 mt of production in 2009.

Whilst Germany dominates European SBQ trade as a main importer, and Russia is notable as a major exporter, European demand for engineering steel bar is estimated at 8.2mt. This is for 2009, against a world consumption estimate of ~34mt. The European demand of 8.2mt is some 37% down on 2007 consumption levels of ~13mt, with SBQ demand especially hard-hit in Western Europe. SBQ demand collapses since 2007 are assessed as near to ~50% in Western Europe, under 10% in Central Europe but intermediate in Eastern Europe, recent patterns in automotive output being largely responsible for these changes.

Looking forward, with year 2009 consumption very much seen as the ‘low point’ in European engineering steel demand for the period 2007-2013, a slow recovery is foreseen in European SBQ demand. This recovery, whilst not anticipating overall European return to 2007 demand volumes until after 2012, assumes much faster recovery in Central Europe [by 2010] and in Eastern Europe [by 2011], with a return to 2007 production levels in Western Europe only expected around 2014. Gradual relocation of automotive component manufacture to modern large-scale plants in the lower labour cost countries of Central and Eastern Europe is the principal factor shaping this recovery in favour of the former Eastern bloc states.

A number of industry scenarios are outlined for the European engineering steel sector across the medium term. These include supply side consolidation in Germany; passive exit from SBQ production by marginal suppliers wishing to optimise their product mix; large-scale SBQ facility investment in Central Europe; medium-scale SBQ facility investment in Eastern Europe; selected engineering steel asset sales in Romania; outright SBQ business disposals by some of the volume steelmakers; and facility restructuring at selected sites. Probabilities are assigned to each of the scenarios. Reduction of competition in engineering steel production through European M&A activity or plant closure with relocation across Europe from West to East and / or through passive exit from SBQ steel production are judged as high probability outcomes.

Priced at Euro 995, the new report is available for purchase from http://www.steelonthenet.com/SBQ.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

NOTES

About Metals Consulting International Limited [‘MCI’]

Metals Consulting International Limited is a UK-based firm of management consultants who provide clients worldwide with independent consulting services relating to the international metals industries. Services include assistance with steel sector strategy formulation, due-diligence, restructuring, modernisation, business planning, performance turnaround and profit improvement.

About Engineering Steels [‘SBQ’]

Also known as special bar quality or SBQ, engineering steel can be defined as steel that moves [rotates, twists or bends] rather than stand still whilst in use – usual applications extend to crankshafts, gearbox gears, suspension arms, automotive springs and hydraulic components.

Free webmaster tools - steel websites

2010-01-05T19:53:00.002Z

The Steelonthenet.com development team has just released a series of free website tools for webmasters. If you or your company run a steel industry website, then these free tools will allow you to add:

- free steel news
- a free steel photo gallery
- free steel industry conference info
- a free steel search engine

and other functionality to your site. There is no cost. All the steel ‘widgets’ are with the compliments of the Steelonthenet.com team. Installation of all applications is easy and simply requires some ‘cutting’ and ‘pasting’ of a few lines of HTML code b your webmaster …

You can see all the free tools at http://www.steelonthenet.com/widgets.php where further installation instructions are also provided.

With best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year.

Dr Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
www.steelonthenet.com

2010 iron ore price

2010-01-01T18:14:00.002Z

Well, it looks like the benchmark 2010 iron ore price settlement will be somewhere near 30% above year 2009 price levels. That at least is the comment of http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/6636140/soaring-spot-price-bring-cheers-for-iron-ore-miners/ according to the latest views from those in the know in China.

More news on this pricing topic as we hear …

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel intelligence - straight from your desktop

2009-12-30T13:05:00.002Z

The Steelonthenet.com marketing team have set up a free toolbar for download by visitors to http://www.steelonthenet.com. If you are interested in accessing our steel news, event listings, and other steel data whilst browsing any other website please visit http://steelonthenet.ourtoolbar.com/ for further information. Alternatively, you may go to http://steelonthenet.ourtoolbar.com/exe to download the toolbar directly. There is no cost, and an uninstaller is also provided in case you change you mind.

Be better informed … with compliments of www.steelonthenet.com

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Eurofer disappointment over Copenhagen

2009-12-21T21:25:00.002Z

Eurofer today issued a press release, expressing its disappointment over the outcome of the Copenhagen talks. “The Copenhagen deal is a disappointment. We had hoped that an agreement in Copenhagen would have resulted in a global level playing field between industrial competitors worldwide”, said a EUROFER press release issued earlier today.

Eurofer suggests that a number of EU responses would now be appropriate. These include (amongst other suggestions)

no European financial support for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures to countries which do not agree to international monitoring of all their industrial GHG emissions,
increases of financial support for R&D of carbon lean technologies in the EU.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel company 'diagnostics' service

2009-11-04T11:09:00.002Z

Are you interested in an independent view of what ArcelorMittal might be doing in the next 5 years? Or in the probable future evolution path for Nippon Steel in Japan? Or in possible medium-term steel sector disposals by BlueScope Steel?

Steel experts MCI have put together a list of scenarios [which we think, are quite possible corporate trajectories] for more than 40 of the world's largest steel companies. This list is available for free, for all our site visitors to see, as part of a new 'Steel diagnostics' service. To see the full list and for further info about MCI's new service, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/swot.html.

Dr Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
www.steelonthenet.com

Polish steel industry - supply and demand review

2009-10-16T07:37:00.001Z

Steel industry consultants MCI have just published a review of the steel sector in Poland.

In an October 2009 report of ~45 pages, the authors discuss the supply of demand for steel, including recent history and current industry structure and ownership. The report looks at current steel capacities in flat, long and tube products; at production, capacity utilisation, environmental issues, productivity, demand levels and demand segmentation. The authors also discuss future Polish steel consumption levels and market trends. Priced at Euro 395, the new report also outlines an industry SWOT analysis; and discusses some of the management challenges ahead.

For further information, visit Polish steel industry report.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Zinc ingot prices

2009-10-07T10:38:00.002Z

Zinc seems to be hovering at a twelve month high. Prices in recent days have hit $1900 to $2000 per tonne for LME high grade ingot of 99.995% purity [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/charts.html for price chart]. This must feed into hot dip galvanised / electro galvanised coil and sheet prices some time soon.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel scrap prices

2009-09-30T17:00:00.003Z

Is anyone watching the price of steel scrap? The Rotterdam f.o.b. export price of HMS1 heavy steel scrap was under US $200 / metric tonne in March 2009. Today, barely six months later, the price is around US $325 per tonne. You can track the latest scrap prices at http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel prices: price recovery in the medium term

2009-08-20T09:43:00.002Z

A few steel industry colleagues have been asking the www.steelonthenet.com team how we see world steel prices evolving in the medium term. In reply, looking the world economic picture as well as at probable raw material price developments, our assessment is that:

- steel prices will remain at H1 2009 levels for the next 6-9 months … meaning we see steel prices as essentially stable to Q2 2010;

- we then see prices recovering slowly. We predict a price recovery from Q2 2010 of perhaps 40% across the following two years [to mid-2012];

- we see further recovery of world steel prices to around 50-60% above Q2 2010 levels in 2013-2014.

This means therefore that (in our view) steel prices will take a little while [maybe 3 years or so] to recover to their end-2007 / early 2008 level, but that we do not foresee a return to the extraordinary prices levels of mid-2008 for some time.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World steel production forecast for 2009

2009-07-13T09:32:00.001Z

Steel industry consultants MEPS have just published their forecast for 2009 world steel production. The output forecast for crude steel is 1165 million metric tonnes. This is a 12% drop on global 2008 steelmaking production volumes. For full article, see http://www.meps.co.uk/article-key-out-q2-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel industry quiz

2009-07-07T09:08:00.002Z

The www.steelonthenet.com team have put together a steel industry quiz. Sponsored by steel industry consultants MCI [Metals Consulting International] the steel quiz is a 5 minute test involving 20 questions on world supply, demand and related steel industry issues.

Why not test your knowledge for free? Visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/tests/questions.php

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices at bottom of cycle ?

2009-06-09T14:56:00.002Z

Flat product prices appear to be at or close to the bottom of the cycle. This is the latest view from Sheffield-based steel consultants MEPS. Recent price forecasts appear to have changed very little since April 2009. Whilst there is still some negative pressure on transaction values due to subdued demand and bloated inventories - and transaction values may slip a little further in June 2009 - steel prices should stabilise during the third quarter of 2009. Steel product prices are then forecast to start rising in the final quarter of this year, with further advances predicted early in 2010 as the world economic climate improves.

To read the full MEPS price report, visit http://www.worldsteelprices.com/news4.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Balance of the sexes ... iron and steel, mining and metals

2009-05-19T13:06:00.003Z

We have just done a count of the male : female ratio amongst senior executives in the industry worldwide. Our full list of international iron and steel / mining and metals-related executives (including Chairpersons, Presidents, CEOs, MDs, FDs, other Board members, Partners etc) comes to a total of ~350 people. For full list [which we do not pretend is exhaustive] please see www.steelonthenet.com/whoswho.html. From this list, the female total comes to just eight. That is ~2.3% of the total.

In alphabetical order the women on this list include Galina Aglyamova (CFO of NLMK, Russia), Vicki Avril (President of IPSCOs operations in Canada), Cynthia Carroll (CEO of Anglo American), Becky Hites (Managing Partner at World Steel Dynamics), Ms Elisabeth Nilsson (MD at Jernkontoret, Sweden), Xie Qihua (Chairwoman of Baosteel Group, China), Ms Barbara R Smith (CFO at Gerdau Ameristeel) and Anne Tremblay (Secretary General, International Manganese Institute).

Not much balance of the sexes in iron and steel / mining and metals then. Rather, a very male dominated industry still - in case there was any doubt.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World stainless steel output to fall

2009-05-01T10:41:00.002Z

MEPS are reporting that world stainless steel output is to fall in 2009. According to the consultancy, global stainless steel production will come to ~20.8 million tonnes in 2009, which represents a production fall of around 20 per cent from 2008 levels. The Western world figure (excluding China and Russia at 13.5 million tonnes will be the lowest production figure since 1994 - and indicate the third consecutive annual decline in Western stainless steel output.

You can read more at http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial04-09.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steelonthenet.com - Website tour

2009-04-25T15:55:00.002Z

We have put together a short two minute website tour for visitors interested in the www.steelonthenet.com website.

To see the tour, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/index.html?tourId=MyTour.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Ferroalloy price collapse

2009-04-14T10:50:00.002Z

For those steel company purchasing managers who may be interested in ferroalloy prices, our main website http://www.steelonthenet.com monitors the prices of key steelmaking ferroalloys on a daily / weekly basis. To see the latest ferroalloy price charts, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/alloys.html. A general price collapse is evident, with ferro-chrome, ferrosilicon, ferromoly, ferromanganese, ferrotitanium and ferro-vanadium prices in dollars or in Euros generally down to one half or one third of their levels of one year ago.

Have these prices hit rock bottom now?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World iron ore price - 2009 reduction

2009-03-09T09:02:00.003Z

Well, it looks like the Chinese will be pushing for a 2009 iron ore price settlement near to a 40% price reduction. That is a little more of a price fall than we discussed in a previous blog, but arguably the recession has set in harder and longer now.

For the latest discussions about China's stance on iron ore prices, see http://en.ce.cn/Industries/Basic-industries/200903/09/t20090309_18436351.shtml.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Green shoots of steel recovery?

2009-02-17T19:29:00.002Z

The Baltic Dry Index [BDI] is frequently mentioned as a leading indicator of economic performance and indeed, the BDI started to collapse in June 2008 some time before the current credit crisis properly set in. For those unfamiliar with the index, it is a weighted basket of international sea freight rates for commodities such as iron ore and coal. Because the size of the shipping fleet is effectively fixed in the short-term, the assertion is often made that the BDI is an especially sensitive measure of the near-term commodity supply / demand balance …

We show the value of the index on our website, at http://www.steelonthenet.com/files/bdi.html. It is noticeable that after a 90% or so collapse in the last 12 months, the index is indeed picking up once more having doubled in value in the last few weeks.

So, the green shoots of recovery for the steel industry at last?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices back on the rise?

2009-01-22T14:33:00.003Z

A MEPS report http://www.meps.co.uk/keynote01-09.htm today suggests that EU steel prices will be back on the rise soon. Steel prices - according to MEPS – have now bottomed. Visit MEPS to see the their latest report…

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Ocean freight transport - collapse of Baltic Dry Index

2008-11-21T13:08:00.003Z

For those in the steel industry watching the cost of ocean freight transport, you may wish to note that the cost of transporting iron ore, coal and steel has collapsed in recent months. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) today stands at 847, which is 92% down on a year ago [yes, that's 8% of the BDI's value in November 2007].

Our main website now reports the value of this index daily. Please visit here: Baltic Dry Index.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2009 iron ore price settlement

2008-11-02T13:26:00.001Z

What a difference a few weeks make!

Two reports published by the Financial Times last week suggest that 2009 world iron ore prices will fall - or at best see a minimal rise in 2009.

Thus on Thursday, the FT discussed the high probability that iron ore miners would see the first price cut in seven years [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88fc2368-a6af-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 ].

On Friday, the paper discussed how a fall in Chinese steel demand would cause iron ore prices to buckle [see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca829344-a6eb-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html ].

The general indication seems presently to be that iron ore prices will settle in 2009 somewhere between a 10 per cent cut, and a 10 per cent rise (at most). Watch this space!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

European steel prices collapse

2008-10-22T11:55:00.001Z

MEPS today report a collapse in European steel prices. Weak end-user demand in France, frozen market activity in Italy, depressed UK demand, a wait and see approach in the Belgian market, a severe decline in orders in Spain ... all complete a pretty desperate picture for steelmakers as the impact of the worldwide credit crisis starts to bite. For full report, see http://www.meps.co.uk/keynote10-08.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Iron ore prices 2009

2008-09-18T10:02:00.001Z

As we enter the last quarter of 2008, so discussions commence on the 2009 iron ore price level. Following on from the mid-contract 20% price rise sought for Chinese consumers by Vale just weeks ago [September 2008], industry talk at present is of a 30% iron ore price increase in 2009. This would of course follow the massive price rises of between 65% to 95% seen during 2008.

For further reports on the expected price increase, see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e5152dc-7b3d-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices climbing higher still

2008-08-29T18:34:00.002Z

MEPS today suggest that despite steel prices being at an all time high, finished product prices can be expected to go higher still in September. This is despite current prices for hot rolled coil being ~$500-$600 per tonne higher than they were 12 months ago.

For full report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/viewpoint8-08.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steelmaking energy costs

2008-08-28T21:00:00.001Z

For those steelmakers not watching their energy prices, here is a quick reminder of the changes in recent months.

Looking at steam coal prices [and we use the Australian Port Kembla f.o.b. thermal coal cost benchmark] these costs have risen from ~$72/tonne last summer to $193/t today, which is a 168% rise.

Looking at gas prices [and we use Russian natural gas as our cost benchmark, based on the German border price] these costs have risen from $280 per 1000 m3 last summer to $517 per 1000 m3 today, which is an 85% cost increase.

For regular monthly updates on these prices, visit www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Russian Steel - one step forward, two steps back?

2008-07-13T14:34:00.001Z

Well, after all the progress made in the last decade (or two) with restructuring, modernisation and privatisation of the steel sector in Russia, it seems that the regulators have been taking several steps backwards in recent months. News reports are circulating about the creation of a NewCo called Russpetsstal [sometimes spelt Russpetstal] which is a newly-formed Holding Company for Russia's special steel production assets.

In the RusSpetStal ownership so far is the Red October Works, a producer of stainless steel which the Holding acquired last year. Rumours abound concerning entry into RusSpetStal of MMK [Magnitka, or the Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Kombinat]. Perhaps more probable are industry rumours about Mechel [also known as the Cheliabinsk Steel Works] whose special steel assets would be 'welcomed' in the new Group. Driving all this change is a firm called Rosoboronexport, which is a State-owned firm involved in the Russian defence sector.

For more on this story, see http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid=Business+New+Europe&articleid=a1195715889.

After Venezuela, now Russia ...

Just as the steel industry was starting to look healthy again, perhaps 2008 will be remembered as the year of renationalisation?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel oligarchs

2008-05-01T12:45:00.001Z

For those visitors who may be interested in the steel industry in Russia and Ukraine, the analyst team at www.steelonthenet.com has just put together a list of key oligarchs involved in CIS metals and mining. The listing also identifies the main steel industry businesses (plus other related metal sector assets) owned or largely controlled by the CIS billionaires.

To see the steel oligarch list, visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/files/oligarchs.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Strategy and plant closures - Corus tinplate

2008-04-20T09:15:00.001Z

This week saw an announcement from Corus concerning the possible reduction of capacity in Wales with the loss of up to 300 jobs at the steelmaker's tinplate operation in Llanelli [see http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/04/18/corus-to-lose-300-jobs-at-trostre-llanelli-91466-20784231/]. The planned reduction in capacity and headcount at Trostre it seems, is in response to overcapacity in global demand for tinplate.

The team at http://www.steelonthenet.com/ have for some time considered that - with no iron ore, a dependence on imported coal, high energy costs and expensive labour - there was little chance that UK iron and steelmaking would survive long-term. This view was reinforced by recent EU legislation concerning CO2 emissions, which can only result in further shifts of steelmaking from Western Europe to countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China.

However, we always beleived that the future of UK steelmaking was in downstream steel products, where know-how, high value added, closeness to markets etc offset some of the economic disadvantages of making steel in the UK. The acquisition of Corus by Tata was, we also thought, a confirmation of our belief in the future of the UK steel sector downstream.

So this week's announcement about closure of downstream capacity at Corus comes as a bit of a surprise. With contraction of tinplate markets, and progressive relocation of automotive production and white goods manufacture to Central and Eastern Europe, it raises the question: what actually will Corus' new owners be left with in the UK, ten years down the line?

All clarifications / readers' comments concerning the strategic options for UK steelmaking welcomed!

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Coking coal prices 2008

2008-04-03T11:25:00.002Z

Press reports are circulating (and quoting ArcelorMittal) about expected increases in coking coal prices of some 150-200%. This would add to the 65% increase in iron ore costs seen in January 2008, and to last month's near $100/tonne increase in scrap prices. Current coking coal prices are just under $100 per short ton [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html] and today make up around $65 of the total cost of a (metric) tonne of liquid steel through the integrated steelmaking route [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/steel_cost_bof.html].

For original report on the expected coking coal price increases see
http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&ArticleID=1518-24_2299142.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steelmaking costs 2008

2008-02-18T15:59:00.001Z

With all the talk of the impending 2008 iron ore price increase, industry observers might be forgiven for taking their eye off other steelmaking costs. But ferrous scrap prices also rocketed in January [see http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html], rising a massive $90/tonne to ~$385-$400 fob Rotterdam for HMS1. Just to add to the misery, natural gas prices also jumped 20% in January [http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html], to reach record levels ...

Anyone betting on a 2008 steel price fall ?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2008 iron ore price rise

2008-02-17T22:14:00.002Z

Reports are coming in that Nippon Steel has just agreed an iron ore price increase, effective 1st April 2008. The price rise is 65%.

Steel mills typically accept whatever price is first settled with one of the big three miners, so it seems probable that the 65% iron ore price increase will be the benchmark settlement for other deals in the coming weeks.

For original report, see http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL176439220080217

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Crude steel production 2007

2008-02-10T16:51:00.000Z

According to the International Iron and Steel Institute, the top steel producing countries in 2007 were China (489 mt crude steel), Japan (120.2 mt), and the USA (97.2 mt). World crude steel production reached 1,343.5 million metric tonnes, up 7.5% on 2007 with Chinese production growing almost 16% from 433 mt.

For full 2007 world steel production report, see http://www.worldsteel.org/?action=newsdetail&id=228

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2008 steelmaking costs rise steeply

2008-01-06T12:24:00.000Z

As discussions centre on crude oil prices hitting $100 a barrel this week, steel portal www.steelonthenet.com has recalculated current steelmaking costs with the latest inputs prices for scrap, electricity, coal etc.

Even before the expected 2008 price increase for iron ore, steelmaking costs for a typical West European steelmaker have risen some 35-40% in the 12 months since January 2007. Electric arc furnace steelmaking currently costs approx $447 per tonne of liquid steel. BOF steelmaking currently costs $353 per tonne. The figures compare to costs of $321 and $262 respectively exactly one year ago.

The summary cost calculations behind the current figures are shown online at www.steelonthenet.com/steel_cost_eaf.html and www.steelonthenet.com/steel_cost_bof.html. Interestingly, the cost differential between BOF and electric steelmaking has swung towards integrated steelmaking, which is now $94/tonne cheaper [at liquid steel level] than scrap-based steelmaking.

It remains to be seen how this differential will be affected by the current round of negotiations about 2008 iron ore prices. The expected iron ore price rises seem very likely to push mid-2008 BOF steelmaking costs towards $400/tonne liquid steel, and EAF steelmaking towards $500/t meaning that these costs will more than 50% above end-2006 price levels.

It certainly seems like a good time to be selling scrap ...

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel glossary

2007-12-26T14:06:00.000Z

Steelonthenet.com have published a glossary of terms. If you would like to know what a 'cobble' is, or need 'residuals' explained, please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/glossary.html

Regards

blogger@steelonthenet.com

World crude steel output forecast

2007-12-08T17:34:00.000Z

MEPS have just published a medium term world crude steel production forecast. Please see table below. This shows year 2011 crude steel production at ~1.6 billion tonnes, which is some 28% up on 2006 world output. China alone accounts for 208 mt of this increase. The implication is that Chinese crude steel capacity is coming onstream at a rate close to one million tonnes a week ... Wow !

Crude Steel Production Forecast (millions tonnes)
Region	2006	2007	2011
W. Europe	235.1	242.3	263.0
Former USSR	119.8	125.3	153.0
NAFTA	131.5	133.3	135.5
South America	45.3	47.5	61.5
Africa/Middle East	34.0	34.9	49.0
China	422.1	492.5	630.0
Japan	116.2	119.7	122.0
Rest of Asia	136.3	145.8	177.0
Oceania	8.7	8.8	9.0
World	1249.2	1350.0	1600.0
Source: MEPS - Global Iron & Steel Production to 2011

For original MEPS report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/global-production2011.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Top producer rankings in iron ore and steel

2007-11-25T13:01:00.001Z

We have just published the top producer rankings in the steel sector, based on capacity as at the end of 2007.

In iron ore, CVRD leads the field with 324 mt of iron ore capacity (20% of the world total), and Rio Tinto second (209 mt) and BHP Billiton third (152 mt). BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto combined would therefore take the number one slot with ~360 mt, or approximately 22% of world supply. Currently, the top three have a worldwide supply share of 42%.

In steel flat products, Mittal Arcelor is in number one position with ~103 mt of flat roll capacity, US Steel is a fairly distant number two with ~32 mt flat product capacity and Nippon Steel is in number three slot with ~30 mt/year of capacity. The top three flat product producers currently have a world supply share of 26.5%.

In steel long products, Mittal Arcelor is again number one, but with just 8% or so of world supply (~ 47 mt capacity / year from a world total of about 596 mt). Gerdau of Brazil is number two (with approx 20 mt capacity) and Evrazholding of Russia is number three with ~15 mt/year of long product capacity. The top three long product producers together control just 14% or so of world supply.

Compared to iron ore production or flat steel product supply, the industry structure in steel long products therefore remains very fragmented. Perhaps long products is the next area where significant industry consolidation might therefore be expected in 2008 ?

For full top 20 capacity rankings in iron ore, flat and long products, visit us at http://www.steelonthenet.com/plant.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Iron ore prices to soar

2007-11-23T09:08:00.000Z

The latest view on the 2008 iron ore price is that it will increase by 30-50% over 2007 price level. Interestingly, this perspective is not driven by the BHP-Billiton - Rio bid. Rather, this view emerges for a different reason - which is urbanisation in China and India. According to the report, demand for steel will increase as people move from rural agriculture-based activities to manufacturing or service-based activities located in cities.

For original report, see http://www.stuff.co.nz/4282964a6026.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Chinese steel output to reach 1 billion tonnes by 2015

2007-10-31T13:52:00.000Z

According to a recent Australian government forecast, Chinese steel production is expected to double in the next eight years from approx 480 million tonnes today to around 1 billion tonnes by 2015.

For original news report, visit http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6363799&action=article.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2007 and 2008 world steel demand forecast

2007-10-08T08:09:00.000Z

In their 'Short Term Outlook' published today, the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) predict that year 2007 world steel demand will be just short of 1.2 billion metric tonnes. Steel consumption in 2008 is expected to grow by 6.8%. This means that 2007 consumption of ~1198 mt will increase to ~1279 mt in 2008.

Brazil, Russia, India and China lead the growth in steel demand, accounting for ~77% of world demand growth in 2007 and ~71% of the expected growth in 2008.

For full IISI report, see http://www.worldsteel.org/index.php?action=newsdetail&id=213

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Iron ore prices 2008

2007-09-14T07:38:00.000Z

Reports are coming in that the forthcoming round of iron ore price negotiations could result in some quite large price increases once again.

The main issue seems to be the very tight iron ore market today. Price negotiations are therefore expected to move one way only - and this is upwards.

Some analysts even consider that the 2007 / 2008 iron ore price rise - in percentage terms - could even be as high the 71% rise seen around March 2005.

To read more on this topic, visit http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=4033500&fSectionId=552&fSetId=662

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Rebar steel futures contract

2007-09-02T19:06:00.000Z

In a similar move to those planned by some of its international rivals, the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) launches its own rebar futures contract on October 29. Each contract is to be for 10 tonnes of reinforcing bar. Three delivery months are to be offered at launch: initially December 2007, January 2008 and February 2008. Additional delivery months and a weekly delivery cycle are to be added as market liquidity grows.

The reinforcing steel bar contract is the first of four contracts targeted at the steel supply chain that the DGCX plans to issue. The others are for stainless steel, for flat products and for freight.

The New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch its steel futures contract later this year. The LME aims to start trading its steel futures contracts in April.

For full report on the DGCX rebar contract, see http://www.arabianbusiness.com/498917-dgcx-launching-steel-futures-next-month

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Stainless steel forecast 2007

2007-08-30T14:39:00.000Z

World production of stainless steel is forecast to reach 29 million metric tonnes in 2007 [crude steel equivalent], according to projections just published by MEPS

This forecast represents an increase of just 2.2% on 2006 output. Orders seems few and far between as stocks are consumed, and as purchases are delayed in anticipation of surcharges tumbling in the coming months, as alloy metal prices fall.

For full MEPS article (including regional stainless production forecasts) see http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial8-07.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Nickel prices

2007-08-28T18:49:00.000Z

For anybody interested in stainless steel pricing, you may wish to note that nickel prices have been tumbling in recent months.

Current nickel prices are comparable to prices about 12 months ago, and the LME price has fallen over $20,000/tonne from its peak in May 2007. You will find daily nickel prices for the last 12 months at http://www.steelonthenet.com/charts.html

Cash is king again, I guess.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Declining steel prices [MEPS]

2007-08-15T09:00:00.001Z

MEPS Consultants today report that world steel product prices declined in July faster than anticipated - mainly as a result of decreases in EU and North American flat product prices. The consultancy forecasts reasonably stable pricing into early 2008, suggesting that price increases in the North American market are likely to be offset by reductions in the EU.

MEPS also consider that a significant pick up will take place later this year in the North American flat products sector after the current destocking phase. Prices in this region are unlikely to attract imports to slow the escalation in the medium term. According to MEPS, both flat and long product prices in the EU are forecast to retreat over the next six months from their dizzy heights in 2007.

For original report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/steel%20price%20forecast%20composite7-07.htm

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Time for a steel pricing correction?

2007-08-13T07:13:00.000Z

According to Daily News Analysis India, corrections are imminent for steel pricing worldwide. After three consecutive months of falling Chinese steel exports, the stage is set for increases in international steel prices, especially in India. According to DNA India, the China Iron and Steel Association confirms that the recent trend in moderating Chinese steel export volumes is expected to continue through the year.

This reduction in steel supply volumes is to be accompanied by reduced steelmaking output in America. The report observes that recent production cuts in the USA are likely to allow price rises in the coming months.

For original article, see http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1115154.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel price forecast - European long products

2007-06-22T06:03:00.000Z

Falling international scrap prices are expected to lead to a decline in transaction prices for EU long products in the coming months according to an assessment just published by MEPS.

Coupled with a slowdown in construction over the winter months, this trend is likely to lead to a sharp decline in rebar prices in Europe as the end of the year arrives. A price correction can then be expected in the beginning of 2008.

For original MEPS report, see http://www.meps.co.uk/medium-carbon-steel-price-forecast-eu6-07.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Metals and mining jobs

2007-06-13T09:01:00.000Z

Steelonthenet.com now lists international job vacancies in the metals and mining sector. To see the latest job listings, please visit www.steelonthenet.com/jobs.php.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Analyst - steel prices to fall in coming months

2007-05-12T11:44:00.000Z

According to a report published in New Kerala earlier this week, steel industry analyst Peter Marcus considers that the world steel price will fall in coming months. For full report, see http://www.newkerala.com/news5.php?action=fullnews&id=28254.

This perspective adds to the debate concerning the medium term future of international steel prices, about which - as reported in our steel blog - there seems to be much divergence of opinion of late ...

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices to fall in 2007

2007-05-04T07:50:00.000Z

MEPS today suggest that flat product steel prices will be falling worldwide by end 2007. New capacity coming onstream, VAT changes and increased exports from China underly the predicted price weakness.

For original report see http://www.meps.co.uk/steel-price-forecast-asia4-07.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Nickel content in stainless steel declining [MEPS]

2007-05-01T14:44:00.000Z

Soaring nickel prices [see daily price chart at http://www.steelonthenet.com/feeds/nickel.php] are driving buyers of austenitic stainless steels to substitute products. Although much of the substitution is taking place within stainless steel (especially in favour of type 430 ferritic and of 200-series grades), coated carbon steels are coming increasingly into consideration.

For the latest report on these trends, visit MEPS at http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial4-07.htm.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Nickel price set to go still higher

2007-04-23T08:02:00.000Z

Reports published in the last few days suggest that nickel prices will be going still higher. According to Reuters the LME benchmark nickel price, which soared to over $50,000 last week, is set to rise because increases in supply during late 2007 and 2008 are unlikely to satisfy the strength of demand.

For original Reuters report see http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN2122017020070422.

LME nickel prices are now shown - together with the latest nickel industry news - on http://www.steelonthenet.com/feeds/nickel.php.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel industry investment moving East?

2007-04-20T07:39:00.000Z

The Prague Daily Monitor today reports that 1000 layoffs are planned later this year in the Czech steel sector at Mittal Steel Ostrava (see http://launch.praguemonitor.com/en/69/czech_business/5200/). The same report makes mention also of the manning reductions planned in the Polish steel sector, where 2500 jobs are to be shed later this year.

Simultaneously, we read in today's Spiegel Online about the current labour dispute at Skoda (http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,478052,00.html), which is all about wages at the Czech auto maker and wage differentials with car manufacturers in Western Europe.

But as noted by Spiegel Online, Central Europe is increasingly witnessing cases of potential investment moving further East to countries such as the Ukraine, where labour costs are cheaper still. Whilst Central Europe still has a long way to go in attaining German labour cost levels, workers should remember ... investors always have a choice.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Free commodity metal price info

2007-04-10T18:14:00.000Z

Free commodity metal price info is now provided online for aluminium, copper, magnesium, nickel, tin, titanium and zinc. Price charts are updated daily.

Please visit http://www.steelonthenet.com/charts.html

Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
http://www.steelonthenet.com

Steel price uncertainty

2007-04-03T09:44:00.000Z

The economists at www.steelonthenet.com observe with interest the current divergence in opinion about future international steel prices. MEPS latest report (March 2007; see http://www.meps.co.uk/steel%20price%20forecast%20na3-07.htm predicts a 'substantial rise in the average steel price' in the coming months, and recent steel industry headlines from Google agree with this viewpoint.

Thus, on Monday 2nd April 2007, we saw the following reports:

Great days for steel industry ahead as prices set to soar
Financial Express - Bombay,India
If the current high in steel prices is not the product of a grand global level manipulation and cartelisation, there are great news for the industry ...

Costlier iron ore: Steel makers to raise prices
Times of India - New Delhi,India
Some companies like Essar and Ispat, which do not have the advantage of captive raw material would be forced to increase steel prices from April to recover ...

However, today (Tuesday 3rd April 2007) the headlines read a little differently:

UBS says steel prices will fall through 2007
Resource Investor - Herndon,VA,USA
According to Peter Hickson, an analyst at UBS, steel prices are poised to fall through next year as inventories rise and exports from China increase ...

Commodities: Steel prices poised to decline
International Herald Tribune - France
LONDON: Steel prices are poised to fall through next year as inventories rise and exports from China increase, which will reduce profits at US Steel and ...

The team from www.steelonthenet.com is following this topic with great interest. Watch this space !

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Falling 2008 steel prices

2007-03-31T14:33:00.000Z

More prophecies of falling steel prices emerge from the experts at UBS. The Financial Express today quotes analysts who are predicting an 8.5% price fall in 2008, caused by rising inventories and increased exports from China.

For full story, see http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=159628

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2007 steel prices in China to fall

2007-03-28T19:54:00.000Z

Steel prices in China are to fall later this year, according to an industry report published today. The price reduction is expected in the second half of 2007 and will be driven by increases in steelmaking capacity outstripping growth in demand.

Shortages of steel products on the international markets are likely to come to an end in the second half of the year, suggest industry observers.

For original report, see
http://english.people.com.cn/200703/28/eng20070328_361853.html

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Mittal regrets lack of MBA degree

2007-03-25T10:02:00.000Z

'The biggest regret of my life is not having a MBA degree' Mittal said while addressing the annual convocation of the Institute of Management Technology, reports DNA India.

The MBA degree is the 'Master of Business Administration' business school qualification. The richest steelmaker in the world was unable to continue studying for his MBA after graduating in Kolkata because of involvement in family business.

For original report, see http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1086974

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel price outlook - up or down ?

2007-03-07T16:14:00.000Z

Purchasing.com recently summarised a very contrasting set of views concerning 2007 steel prices. Whilst steel producers say that current steel prices are still going up, steel buyers are adamant that prices are on their way down...

Thus 'disappointment with the fourth quarter of last year and optimism for the first quarter of 2007 are consistent commentary from steel producers' is one view. The other view is 'falling demand, excess inventories and persistently high imports taking their toll on pricing'.

The original report is at http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6414427.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

FREE steel news on your mobile / Blackberry

2007-03-03T12:43:00.000Z

For steel industry executives who use GPRS or have WAP - enabled phones or other personal digital assistants, steel portal http://www.steelonthenet.com now offers two free steel industry news channels.

These can be accessed 24/7 by typing the following url into your PDA:

http://www.steelonthenet.com/wap/news.php
[5 news items]

OR

http://www.steelonthenet.com/wap/newsfeed.php
[10 news items].

Further setup information can be found at http://www.steelonthenet.com/wap/setup.html - please check connection charges with your GPRS/WAP service provider.

This is a complimentary service from www.steelonthenet.com.

Andrzej M Kotas
Chief Executive
www.steelonthenet.com

China stainless steel output up 68 percent

2007-02-14T08:17:00.000Z

The industry press today reports that China has now become the world's leading producer of stainless steel. According to the Chinese Special Steel Association, Chinese production of stainless steel increased by a massive 68 per cent in 2006 to reach 5.3 million tonnes.

For original report, see http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=103612

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel production forecast 2007

2007-02-01T16:25:00.000Z

The latest world steel production forecast for 2007 suggests that global steel output will increase by 5-6% this year. UK-based consultants MEPS are forecasting 2007 crude steel production of 1307 million metric tonnes.

Production in the seven years of this millenium is especially notable. Since early 2000, the industry has witnessed an increase in steelmaking production volume of ~450 million tonnes.

For full report, see http://www.manufacturingtalk.com/news/msi/msi296.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Metal prices to fall in 2007

2007-01-19T09:30:00.000Z

Some downward metal price predictions for 2007 have just been published by Purchasing.com.

These forecasts suggest falling steel prices this year, with a 2007 steel price low in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Aluminum, copper, nickel and tin prices are also forecast to drop in 2007. See http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6406364.html?industryid=21950.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel prices - were we wrong?

2007-01-17T15:50:00.000Z

Reports from China indicate that 2007 has started off with large price increases for hot rolled steel coil. Mineweb today reports that monthly spot prices for hot rolled coil have increased approx 7.3 percent. Continued strength of exports and low steel inventories, coupled with recovery in domestic steel consumption after a period of demand weakness late last year, account for this.

Our own economists predicted falling world steel prices during the initial months of 2007. Could we be wrong?

blogger@steelonthenet.com

2007 steel price forecasts

2007-01-14T10:53:00.000Z

Forecasts for year 2007 steel prices are proving a little more divergent than usual...

The http://www.steelonthenet.com forecast [see steel price forecast 2007 - 2008], published at the end of 2006, predicts the next price low at end 2007 and the next steel price peak around Q3 2008.

This set of predictions is in line with the general downward forecasts for several other metals. Analysts from the Wachovia Foundation discuss these in the context of the general slowdown worldwide. Wachovia's analysts currently also see much downside in steel prices.

Yet recent reports from other sources suggest steel price stability in 2007. In discussions about POSCO's earnings prospects, CNBC for example discuss a stable steel price outlook for 2007.

More bullish views exist also. The India Times in particular discusses steel ingot prices [which seem to be rising despite general observations elsewhere of falling steel prices between Q4 2006 and Q1 2007]. These steel prices have increased since the beginning of 2007. Ingot steel price futures also show a rising price trend as we move into mid-2007.

So what is going on? Perhaps we will reappraise matters at the end of 2007, but for the time being we stick with our own projections for falling steel prices over the coming months.

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Energy efficiency - steelmaking in Ukraine

2007-01-07T10:37:00.000Z

As Russia has imposed massive increases in natural gas export prices in recent years, so the price paid by steelmakers in the Ukraine has jumped from $50 per 1,000 cubic metre in 2005 to $130 today.

Yet the price increase - which would normally be sufficient to cripple profitability in most steelmaking firms - has strangely enough driven a process of restructuring which according to industry commentators has actually left the Ukrainian steel industry in better shape.

The increases in energy costs have according to a report in the Miami Herald, driven modernisation and investment, forced a general move away from gas to coal [which is abundant in Ukraine] and two years on left a steel industry that is far more self-sufficient and independent of energy prices otherwise controlled by Moscow.

For original report, see http://www.thatsracin.com/mld/miamiherald/business/16387034.htm?source=rss&channel=miamiherald_business

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel price forecast 2007-2008

2006-12-31T12:02:00.000Z

As we reach the end of 2006, the consultants at www.steelonthenet.com thought it might be of interest to share our thoughts about world steel price evolution in 2007 and beyond.

The chart below summarises our thoughts. It shows historic world steel prices [indexed to Jan 2000 = 100] and the cost of most steelmaking input costs for the last twelve years, plus our price forecasts (circled).

The forecast is based on a mathematic analysis of the relationship between historic steel prices and each of the steelmaking cost inputs shown. Perhaps surprisingly, this analysis identifies only a weak (and insignificant) statistical relationship between steel prices and iron ore costs. A much stronger (and statistically significant) correlation proves evident between steel prices and (i) ferrous scrap and (ii) energy prices in the form of thermal coal, crude oil, and natural gas.

It may well be that scrap prices follow rather than lead steel prices, but industry experts see 2007 scrap prices either as largely unchanged from 2006 levels, or as falling.

Also, unlike iron ore (subject in recent days to a 9.5% price increase for 2007) most energy prices are forecast to fall in 2007. This applies especially to coal, where some experts predict 2007 price reductions of ~8 per cent, driven largely by improving infrastructure in Australia and higher output in Indonesia.

If we assume continued price cyclicality and recognise that the last peak of the price cycle was in mid-2006, this points us to the next pricing trough being around Q4 2007 and the next pricing peak being in Q3 2008.

Higher 2007 iron ore prices do not therefore mean higher 2007 steel prices. If historical fact is taken as a guide, falling energy prices and the inevitable down-swing of the 'normal' steel price cycle indicate falling steel prices and thus lower revenue streams for steelmakers in 2007.

For more information, contact economists@steelonthenet.com

2007 iron ore price increase to be 9.5 percent

2006-12-23T09:07:00.000Z

Antara, the Indonesia National News Agency reports that the 2007 iron ore price settlement agreed between CVRD and the Baosteel Group Corporation (China's largest steelmaker) is an increase of 9.5 percent over 2006 reference price levels.

This is the first time that benchmark prices were settled with Baosteel, representing all Chinese steelmakers. The result has been a remarkably quick negotiation process, compared to previous years.

For the full report from Antara, please visit
http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=25060

blogger@steelonthenet.com

Steel Industry Executive Search - North America

2006-12-15T16:07:00.000Z

On behalf of a leading steel sector client - a major North American minimill - Steelonthenet.com is currently searching for three exceptional candidates.

These are:

- a Melt Shop Shift Supervisor
- a Rolling Mill Shift Supervisor
- a Process Engineer.

All three positions are at steel plants in Canada. For further information please visit: http://www.steelonthenet.com/files/recruitment.html.

recruitment@steelonthenet.com

2007 iron ore price rise five percent or more

2006-12-04T19:05:00.000Z

Reports are suggesting that unlike last year - when the Japanese primarily influenced the annual iron ore price negotiations - it will be the Chinese that will have the major impact on the next price settlement.

A report today suggests that according to most analysts, the 2007 price rise will be at least five percent. For more on this topic, please visit: http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/04122006/94/china-likely-boost-iron-ore-price-5.html.

blogger@steelonthenet.com